Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yafoot vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
1 – 1
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
4/21/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 8Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Yafoot32%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.11
Fortuna Mfou
1.27

Fortuna Mfou creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 96 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.84
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Yafoot
1.44
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
60%
Yafoot or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
68%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
13%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
67%
Yafoot 2+ goals
30%
Yafoot 3+ goals
10%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
72%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
36%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
45%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.84 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.11

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Yafoot defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yafoot scores more
32%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
40%

Fortuna Mfou at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yafoot vs Fortuna Mfou

Yafoot and Fortuna Mfou drew 1-1 in Elite One on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo in Yaoundé.