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Yafoot vs Bafmeng United — Elite Two 2020

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
4/10/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Yafoot35%
×Draw28%
Bafmeng United37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.18
Bafmeng United
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.82
Bafmeng United
1.03

allows per match

Yafoot
1.43
Bafmeng United
1.53

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Bafmeng United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
63%
Yafoot or Bafmeng United
72%
Draw or Bafmeng United
65%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
15%
Bafmeng United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
69%
Yafoot 2+ goals
33%
Yafoot 3+ goals
12%
Bafmeng United 1+ goals
71%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
35%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
48%
Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.82 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + Yafoot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yafoot scores more
35%
level
28%
Bafmeng United scores more
37%

Bafmeng United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bafmeng United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Yafoot 2–1 Bafmeng United

Yafoot beat Bafmeng United 2-1 in Elite Two on April 10, 2026.