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Yafoot vs Avion Academy — Elite Two 2020

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
5/7/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Yafoot30%
×Draw28%
Avion Academy42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.04
Avion Academy
1.27

Avion Academy creates 22% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.82
Avion Academy
1.11

allows per match

Yafoot
1.43
Avion Academy
1.26

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
58%
Yafoot or Avion Academy
72%
Draw or Avion Academy
70%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
11%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
65%
Yafoot 2+ goals
28%
Yafoot 3+ goals
9%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
72%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
36%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
42%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.82 + Avion Academy defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Avion Academy attack 1.11 + Yafoot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yafoot scores more
30%
level
28%
Avion Academy scores more
42%

Avion Academy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Yafoot 2–0 Avion Academy

Yafoot beat Avion Academy 2-0 in Elite Two on May 7, 2026.