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Yadro St. Petersburg vs Luki-Energiya — Second League - Group 2 2020

Yadro St. Petersburg
Yadro St. Petersburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Luki-Energiya
Luki-Energiya
10/19/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yadro St. Petersburg41%
×Draw26%
Luki-Energiya33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yadro St. Petersburg
1.44
Luki-Energiya
1.27

Yadro St. Petersburg creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 87 away

creates per match

Yadro St. Petersburg
1.20
Luki-Energiya
0.82

allows per match

Yadro St. Petersburg
1.73
Luki-Energiya
1.67

finishing

Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Luki-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadro St. Petersburg ↓

Luki-Energiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yadro St. Petersburg or draw
67%
Yadro St. Petersburg or Luki-Energiya
74%
Draw or Luki-Energiya
59%

Winning margin

Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+
20%
Luki-Energiya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals
76%
Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals
42%
Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals
18%
Luki-Energiya 1+ goals
72%
Luki-Energiya 2+ goals
36%
Luki-Energiya 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
55%
Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadro St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Luki-Energiya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.67 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.20 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Luki-Energiya attack 0.82 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yadro St. Petersburg scores more
41%
level
26%
Luki-Energiya scores more
33%

Yadro St. Petersburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yadro St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yadro St. Petersburg vs Luki-Energiya

Yadro St. Petersburg and Luki-Energiya drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.