Yadro St. Petersburg 2–3 Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Yadro St. Petersburg

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

4/2/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yadro St. Petersburg37%

×Draw24%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yadro St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchKhimik Dzerzhinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.54

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.50

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

1.20

creates per match

1.34

1.73

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.20

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.34

allows per match

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.73

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadro St. Petersburg ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Yadro St. Petersburg or draw

61%

Yadro St. Petersburg or Khimik Dzerzhinsk

76%

Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk

63%

Winning margin

Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+

18%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals

78%

Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals

44%

Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals

19%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals

79%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals

45%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

49%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadro St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.79 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.20 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.34 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yadro St. Petersburg scores more

37%

level

24%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more

39%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khimik Dzerzhinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff