Yadah 2–0 Sheasham: Result & Stats

Yadah

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sheasham

8/27/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 20Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yadah45%

×Draw31%

Sheasham24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YadahExpected goals in this matchSheasham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.75

Yadah

1.14

Sheasham

0.75

Yadah creates 52% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

0.98

creates per match

0.59

0.91

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Yadah

0.98

Sheasham

0.59

allows per match

Yadah

0.91

Sheasham

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par

Sheasham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Sheasham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Yadah or draw

76%

Yadah or Sheasham

69%

Draw or Sheasham

55%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+

19%

Sheasham wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals

68%

Yadah 2+ goals

32%

Yadah 3+ goals

11%

Sheasham 1+ goals

53%

Sheasham 2+ goals

17%

Sheasham 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)

65%

Sheasham (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Sheasham away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Sheasham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sheasham attack 0.59 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yadah scores more

45%

level

31%

Sheasham scores more

24%

Yadah at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff