Yadah 0–1 Mushowani Stars: Result & Stats

Yadah

FT

0 – 1

Mushowani Stars

8/2/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 17Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Yadah46%

×Draw29%

Mushowani Stars25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YadahExpected goals in this matchMushowani Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.87

Yadah

1.27

Mushowani Stars

0.87

Yadah creates 46% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 18 away

0.98

creates per match

0.83

0.91

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Yadah

0.98

Mushowani Stars

0.83

allows per match

Yadah

0.91

Mushowani Stars

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par

Mushowani Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Mushowani Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Yadah or draw

75%

Yadah or Mushowani Stars

71%

Draw or Mushowani Stars

54%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+

21%

Mushowani Stars wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals

72%

Yadah 2+ goals

36%

Yadah 3+ goals

14%

Mushowani Stars 1+ goals

58%

Mushowani Stars 2+ goals

22%

Mushowani Stars 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)

64%

Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Mushowani Stars away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mushowani Stars attack 0.83 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yadah scores more

46%

level

29%

Mushowani Stars scores more

25%

Yadah at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff