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Yadah vs Kwekwe United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Yadah
Yadah
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kwekwe United
Kwekwe United
3/29/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 4Heart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yadah67%
×Draw21%
Kwekwe United12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yadah
1.87
Kwekwe United
0.63

Yadah creates 197% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Yadah
0.98
Kwekwe United
0.35

allows per match

Yadah
0.91
Kwekwe United
2.76

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par
Kwekwe United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Kwekwe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yadah or draw
88%
Yadah or Kwekwe United
79%
Draw or Kwekwe United
33%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+
41%
Kwekwe United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals
85%
Yadah 2+ goals
56%
Yadah 3+ goals
29%
Kwekwe United 1+ goals
47%
Kwekwe United 2+ goals
13%
Kwekwe United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)
85%
Kwekwe United (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Kwekwe United away — creates 0.35, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Kwekwe United defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.87

Kwekwe United attack 0.35 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Yadah scores more
67%
level
21%
Kwekwe United scores more
12%

Yadah at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yadah vs Kwekwe United

Yadah beat Kwekwe United 3-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Heart Stadium in Harare.