Yadah 1–1 Harare City: Result & Stats

Yadah

FT

1 – 1

Harare City

7/20/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 15Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Yadah40%

×Draw31%

Harare City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YadahExpected goals in this matchHarare City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.85

Yadah

1.08

Harare City

0.85

Yadah creates 27% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

0.98

creates per match

0.79

0.91

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Yadah

0.98

Harare City

0.79

allows per match

Yadah

0.91

Harare City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par

Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Harare City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Yadah or draw

72%

Yadah or Harare City

69%

Draw or Harare City

60%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+

16%

Harare City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals

66%

Yadah 2+ goals

29%

Yadah 3+ goals

10%

Harare City 1+ goals

57%

Harare City 2+ goals

21%

Harare City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)

59%

Harare City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Harare City attack 0.79 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yadah scores more

40%

level

31%

Harare City scores more

28%

Yadah at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff