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Yadah vs Bulawayo Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2026

Yadah
Yadah
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bulawayo Chiefs
Bulawayo Chiefs
9/23/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 24Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Yadah41%
×Draw31%
Bulawayo Chiefs28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yadah
1.11
Bulawayo Chiefs
0.86

Yadah creates 29% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 80 away

creates per match

Yadah
0.98
Bulawayo Chiefs
0.81

allows per match

Yadah
0.91
Bulawayo Chiefs
1.24

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par
Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Bulawayo Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Yadah or draw
72%
Yadah or Bulawayo Chiefs
69%
Draw or Bulawayo Chiefs
59%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+
17%
Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals
67%
Yadah 2+ goals
30%
Yadah 3+ goals
10%
Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals
58%
Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals
21%
Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)
59%
Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Bulawayo Chiefs away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 0.81 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yadah scores more
41%
level
31%
Bulawayo Chiefs scores more
28%

Yadah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Yadah 1–2 Bulawayo Chiefs

Bulawayo Chiefs beat Yadah 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.