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Yadah vs Arenel Movers — Premier Soccer League 2026

Yadah
Yadah
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Arenel Movers
Arenel Movers
10/5/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 29Heart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yadah51%
×Draw28%
Arenel Movers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yadah
1.34
Arenel Movers
0.75

Yadah creates 79% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Yadah
0.98
Arenel Movers
0.59

allows per match

Yadah
0.91
Arenel Movers
1.71

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par
Arenel Movers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Arenel Movers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Yadah or draw
79%
Yadah or Arenel Movers
72%
Draw or Arenel Movers
49%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+
24%
Arenel Movers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals
74%
Yadah 2+ goals
39%
Yadah 3+ goals
15%
Arenel Movers 1+ goals
53%
Arenel Movers 2+ goals
17%
Arenel Movers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)
71%
Arenel Movers (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Arenel Movers away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Arenel Movers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.34

Arenel Movers attack 0.59 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Yadah scores more
51%
level
28%
Arenel Movers scores more
21%

Yadah at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yadah vs Arenel Movers

Yadah beat Arenel Movers 5-3 in Premier Soccer League on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Heart Stadium in Harare.