Yacoub El Mansour 2–0 Youssoufia Berrechid

Yacoub El Mansour

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Youssoufia Berrechid

12/28/2024

Botola 2 · Round 11Stade Yacoub-El-Mansour

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yacoub El Mansour54%

×Draw24%

Youssoufia Berrechid22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yacoub El MansourExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.00

Yacoub El Mansour

1.72

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.00

Yacoub El Mansour creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

2.20

creates per match

0.87

1.13

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Yacoub El Mansour

2.20

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.87

allows per match

Yacoub El Mansour

1.13

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yacoub El Mansour+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yacoub El Mansour ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Yacoub El Mansour or draw

78%

Yacoub El Mansour or Youssoufia Berrechid

76%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

46%

Winning margin

Yacoub El Mansour wins by 2+

30%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Yacoub El Mansour 1+ goals

82%

Yacoub El Mansour 2+ goals

51%

Yacoub El Mansour 3+ goals

25%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

63%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

26%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Yacoub El Mansour (draw refunded)

71%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yacoub El Mansour at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yacoub El Mansour attack 2.20 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.72

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.87 + Yacoub El Mansour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Yacoub El Mansour scores more

54%

level

24%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

22%

Yacoub El Mansour at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Yacoub El Mansour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff