Yacoub El Mansour 1–3 FUS Rabat: Result & Stats

Yacoub El Mansour

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

FUS Rabat

S. Ahannach 45'

A. Souane 90' (pen)

A. Mouloua 45', 28'

3/6/2026

Botola Pro · Round 15Stade Olympique de Rabat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yacoub El Mansour33%

×Draw27%

FUS Rabat40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yacoub El MansourExpected goals in this matchFUS Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.31

Yacoub El Mansour

1.18

FUS Rabat

1.31

FUS Rabat creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

1.33

creates per match

1.09

1.53

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Yacoub El Mansour

1.33

FUS Rabat

1.09

allows per match

Yacoub El Mansour

1.53

FUS Rabat

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yacoub El Mansour+0.00on par

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yacoub El Mansour ↓

FUS Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Yacoub El Mansour or draw

60%

Yacoub El Mansour or FUS Rabat

73%

Draw or FUS Rabat

67%

Winning margin

Yacoub El Mansour wins by 2+

14%

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Yacoub El Mansour 1+ goals

69%

Yacoub El Mansour 2+ goals

33%

Yacoub El Mansour 3+ goals

12%

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

73%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

38%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Yacoub El Mansour (draw refunded)

46%

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yacoub El Mansour at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yacoub El Mansour attack 1.33 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Yacoub El Mansour defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yacoub El Mansour scores more

33%

level

27%

FUS Rabat scores more

40%

FUS Rabat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

A. Mouloua↳ S. Tazi

34'

A. Mahir

45'

S. Ahannach

45'

A. Mouloua↳ A. Lemsen

46'

D. Bassinga

63'

Z. Fati← Z. Ajoughlal

69'

A. Lakred

72'

A. Souane← S. Tazi

72'

S. Benyachou← L. Diakite

75'

Z. Fati

78'

M. El Badoui← M. Balouk

81'

Y. Amhih← D. Bassinga

81'

H. Moujahid← A. Mouloua

83'

Y. Legnibi← Z. Marour

83'

H. Boussefiane← S. Ahannach

90+8'

I. Moutaraji← A. Serrhat

90'

A. SouanePenalty

Yacoub

FUS

97

Lakred

3

A

31

47

22

8

5

▼

Serrhat

49

A

▼

Tazi

11

▼

Diakite

28

▼

Bassinga

9

⚽2

▼

Mouloua

64

Doughmi

13

Zine

28

▼

14

8

77

33

23

⚽

▼

Ahannach

10

▼

Ajoughlal

21

Mansouri

2

▼

Balouk

Manager: Mehdi El Jabri

63'▲Z. Fati←▼Z. Ajoughlal

78'▲M. El Badoui←▼M. Balouk

83'▲Y. Legnibi←▼Z. Marour

83'▲H. Boussefiane←▼S. Ahannach

Yacoub El Mansour substitutes

99Sayad7Fati19Ahayaoui32Nassik16Legnibi4Nasserallah30Boussefiane17Mrabet90Badoui

Manager: Said Chiba

72'▲A. Souane←▼S. Tazi

72'▲S. Benyachou←▼L. Diakite

81'▲Y. Amhih←▼D. Bassinga

81'▲H. Moujahid←▼A. Mouloua

90+8'▲I. Moutaraji←▼A. Serrhat

FUS Rabat substitutes

12Benrhozil33Amri4Amhih18Moutaraji27Moujahid14Souane30Harrak10Benyachou7Faidi