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XV de Piracicaba U20 vs Rio Branco U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

XV de Piracicaba U20
XV de Piracicaba U20
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rio Branco U20
Rio Branco U20
Kevin 81'
D. Moraes 47'
Marcos 32'
Anthony 22'
Nelson 54'
Sanches 37'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Barão de Serra Negra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

XV de Piracicaba U2038%
×Draw26%
Rio Branco U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.32
Rio Branco U20
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

creates per match

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.25
Rio Branco U20
1.00

allows per match

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.55
Rio Branco U20
1.40

finishing

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par
Rio Branco U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Piracicaba U20 ↓

Rio Branco U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

XV de Piracicaba U20 or draw
64%
XV de Piracicaba U20 or Rio Branco U20
74%
Draw or Rio Branco U20
62%

Winning margin

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+
17%
Rio Branco U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals
73%
XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals
38%
XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals
15%
Rio Branco U20 1+ goals
72%
Rio Branco U20 2+ goals
36%
Rio Branco U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Rio Branco U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Piracicaba U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Rio Branco U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Rio Branco U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rio Branco U20 attack 1.00 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more
38%
level
26%
Rio Branco U20 scores more
36%

XV de Piracicaba U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "XV de Piracicaba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Anthony
32'
Marcos
37'
Sanches
47'
D. Moraes
54'
Nelson
81'
Kevin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: XV de Piracicaba U20 4–2 Rio Branco U20

XV de Piracicaba U20 beat Rio Branco U20 4-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: Anthony (22'), Marcos (32'), Sanches (37'), D. Moraes (47'), Nelson (54'), Kevin (81').

The match was played at Estádio Barão de Serra Negra in Piracicaba, São Paulo.