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XV de Piracicaba U20 vs Oeste U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

XV de Piracicaba U20
XV de Piracicaba U20
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Oeste U20
Oeste U20
Netinho 24'
Gabriel Henrique 88'
A. Caires 78'
Renato 47'
L. Felipe de Abreu Trajano 18'
4/25/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Décio Vitta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

XV de Piracicaba U2036%
×Draw24%
Oeste U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.45
Oeste U20
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.25
Oeste U20
1.55

allows per match

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.55
Oeste U20
1.65

finishing

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par
Oeste U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Piracicaba U20 ↓

Oeste U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

XV de Piracicaba U20 or draw
60%
XV de Piracicaba U20 or Oeste U20
76%
Draw or Oeste U20
64%

Winning margin

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+
17%
Oeste U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals
77%
XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals
42%
XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals
18%
Oeste U20 1+ goals
79%
Oeste U20 2+ goals
46%
Oeste U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Oeste U20 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Piracicaba U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Oeste U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Oeste U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

Oeste U20 attack 1.55 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more
36%
level
24%
Oeste U20 scores more
40%

Oeste U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
L. Felipe de Abreu Trajano
24'
Netinho
47'
Renato
78'
A. Caires
88'
Gabriel Henrique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: XV de Piracicaba U20 vs Oeste U20

Oeste U20 beat XV de Piracicaba U20 4-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 25, 2025.

Goals: L. Felipe de Abreu Trajano (18'), Netinho (24'), Renato (47'), A. Caires (78'), Gabriel Henrique (88').

The match was played at Estádio Décio Vitta in Americana, São Paulo.