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XV de Piracicaba U20 vs Novorizontino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

XV de Piracicaba U20
XV de Piracicaba U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
G. Soares 74'
Kevin 13'
M. Luduena Coronel 85'
Geres Matheus 15'
5/31/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

XV de Piracicaba U2023%
×Draw23%
Novorizontino U2054%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.08
Novorizontino U20
1.81

Novorizontino U20 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

creates per match

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.25
Novorizontino U20
2.08

allows per match

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.55
Novorizontino U20
0.92

finishing

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par
Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Piracicaba U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

XV de Piracicaba U20 or draw
46%
XV de Piracicaba U20 or Novorizontino U20
77%
Draw or Novorizontino U20
77%

Winning margin

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+
8%
Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals
66%
XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals
29%
XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals
10%
Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
84%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
54%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)
29%
Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Piracicaba U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more
23%
level
23%
Novorizontino U20 scores more
54%

Novorizontino U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
Kevin
15'
Geres Matheus
74'
G. Soares
85'
M. Luduena Coronel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: XV de Piracicaba U20 vs Novorizontino U20

XV de Piracicaba U20 and Novorizontino U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2026.

Goals: Kevin (13'), Geres Matheus (15'), G. Soares (74'), M. Luduena Coronel (85').