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XV de Piracicaba U20 vs Inter Limeira U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

XV de Piracicaba U20
XV de Piracicaba U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Limeira U20
Inter Limeira U20
J. Medeiros 72'
L. Miguel 87'
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Barão de Serra Negra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

XV de Piracicaba U2037%
×Draw25%
Inter Limeira U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.38
Inter Limeira U20
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.25
Inter Limeira U20
1.25

allows per match

XV de Piracicaba U20
1.55
Inter Limeira U20
1.50

finishing

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par
Inter Limeira U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Piracicaba U20 ↓

Inter Limeira U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

XV de Piracicaba U20 or draw
62%
XV de Piracicaba U20 or Inter Limeira U20
75%
Draw or Inter Limeira U20
63%

Winning margin

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+
17%
Inter Limeira U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals
75%
XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals
40%
XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals
16%
Inter Limeira U20 1+ goals
75%
Inter Limeira U20 2+ goals
41%
Inter Limeira U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Inter Limeira U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Piracicaba U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Inter Limeira U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Inter Limeira U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Inter Limeira U20 attack 1.25 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more
37%
level
25%
Inter Limeira U20 scores more
38%

Inter Limeira U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Inter Limeira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Kevin
65'
72'
J. Medeiros
87'
L. Miguel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: XV de Piracicaba U20 vs Inter Limeira U20

XV de Piracicaba U20 and Inter Limeira U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: J. Medeiros (72'), L. Miguel (87').

The match was played at Estádio Barão de Serra Negra in Piracicaba, São Paulo.