XV de Piracicaba U20 2–1 Gremio Prudente U20

XV de Piracicaba U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gremio Prudente U20

Unknown 72'

Bruninho 21'

Unknown 74'

5/16/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Décio Vitta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

XV de Piracicaba U2032%

×Draw26%

Gremio Prudente U2042%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Piracicaba U20Expected goals in this matchGremio Prudente U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.46

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.25

Gremio Prudente U20

1.46

Gremio Prudente U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

1.25

creates per match

1.38

1.55

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.25

Gremio Prudente U20

1.38

allows per match

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.55

Gremio Prudente U20

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par

Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Piracicaba U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

XV de Piracicaba U20 or draw

58%

XV de Piracicaba U20 or Gremio Prudente U20

74%

Draw or Gremio Prudente U20

68%

Winning margin

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+

14%

Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals

71%

XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals

36%

XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals

13%

Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals

77%

Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals

43%

Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)

44%

Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Piracicaba U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more

32%

level

26%

Gremio Prudente U20 scores more

42%

Gremio Prudente U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gremio Prudente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Bruninho

72'

74'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff