XV de Piracicaba U20 0–1 Botafogo SP U20

XV de Piracicaba U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP U20

Pedro Severino 90+5'

6/21/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Barão de Serra Negra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

XV de Piracicaba U2035%

×Draw24%

Botafogo SP U2041%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Piracicaba U20Expected goals in this matchBotafogo SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.61

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.48

Botafogo SP U20

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

1.25

creates per match

1.67

1.55

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.25

Botafogo SP U20

1.67

allows per match

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.55

Botafogo SP U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Piracicaba U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

XV de Piracicaba U20 or draw

59%

XV de Piracicaba U20 or Botafogo SP U20

76%

Draw or Botafogo SP U20

65%

Winning margin

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+

17%

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals

77%

XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals

43%

XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals

19%

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals

80%

Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals

48%

Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)

46%

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Piracicaba U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more

35%

level

24%

Botafogo SP U20 scores more

41%

Botafogo SP U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+5'

Pedro Severino

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff