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XV de Novembro U20 vs Santarritense U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

XV de Novembro U20
XV de Novembro U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santarritense U20
Santarritense U20
8/9/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 14Arena Pitangui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

XV de Novembro U2055%
×Draw25%
Santarritense U2021%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Novembro U20
1.65
Santarritense U20
0.91

XV de Novembro U20 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

XV de Novembro U20
0.58
Santarritense U20
0.14

allows per match

XV de Novembro U20
1.67
Santarritense U20
2.71

finishing

XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par
Santarritense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Novembro U20 ↓

Santarritense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

XV de Novembro U20 or draw
79%
XV de Novembro U20 or Santarritense U20
75%
Draw or Santarritense U20
45%

Winning margin

XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+
30%
Santarritense U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals
81%
XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals
49%
XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals
23%
Santarritense U20 1+ goals
60%
Santarritense U20 2+ goals
23%
Santarritense U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)
73%
Santarritense U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Novembro U20 at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Santarritense U20 away — creates 0.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.58 + Santarritense U20 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Santarritense U20 attack 0.14 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

XV de Novembro U20 scores more
55%
level
25%
Santarritense U20 scores more
21%

XV de Novembro U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "XV de Novembro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: XV de Novembro U20 vs Santarritense U20

Santarritense U20 beat XV de Novembro U20 1-0 in Mineiro U20 on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Pitangui in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.