Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

XV de Novembro U20 vs Minas Boca U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

XV de Novembro U20
XV de Novembro U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Minas Boca U20
Minas Boca U20
5/24/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 3Campo do Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

XV de Novembro U2056%
×Draw21%
Minas Boca U2023%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Novembro U20
2.17
Minas Boca U20
1.33

XV de Novembro U20 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

XV de Novembro U20
0.58
Minas Boca U20
1.00

allows per match

XV de Novembro U20
1.67
Minas Boca U20
3.75

finishing

XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par
Minas Boca U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Novembro U20 ↓

Minas Boca U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

XV de Novembro U20 or draw
77%
XV de Novembro U20 or Minas Boca U20
79%
Draw or Minas Boca U20
44%

Winning margin

XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+
34%
Minas Boca U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals
89%
XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals
64%
XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals
36%
Minas Boca U20 1+ goals
74%
Minas Boca U20 2+ goals
38%
Minas Boca U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)
71%
Minas Boca U20 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Novembro U20 at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Minas Boca U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.58 + Minas Boca U20 defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.17

Minas Boca U20 attack 1.00 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

XV de Novembro U20 scores more
56%
level
21%
Minas Boca U20 scores more
23%

XV de Novembro U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "XV de Novembro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: XV de Novembro U20 4–1 Minas Boca U20

XV de Novembro U20 beat Minas Boca U20 4-1 in Mineiro U20 on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Campo do Santa Cruz in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.