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XV de Novembro U20 vs Ipatinga U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

XV de Novembro U20
XV de Novembro U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ipatinga U20
Ipatinga U20
Unknown 67'
8/2/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 13Arena Pitangui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

XV de Novembro U2070%
×Draw17%
Ipatinga U2013%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Novembro U20
2.58
Ipatinga U20
1.05

XV de Novembro U20 creates 146% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

XV de Novembro U20
0.58
Ipatinga U20
0.43

allows per match

XV de Novembro U20
1.67
Ipatinga U20
4.57

finishing

XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par
Ipatinga U20+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Novembro U20 ↓

Ipatinga U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

XV de Novembro U20 or draw
87%
XV de Novembro U20 or Ipatinga U20
83%
Draw or Ipatinga U20
30%

Winning margin

XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+
48%
Ipatinga U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals
92%
XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals
72%
XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals
47%
Ipatinga U20 1+ goals
65%
Ipatinga U20 2+ goals
28%
Ipatinga U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)
84%
Ipatinga U20 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Novembro U20 at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Ipatinga U20 away — creates 0.43, concedes 4.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.58 + Ipatinga U20 defence 4.57 → ÷2 → 2.58

Ipatinga U20 attack 0.43 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

XV de Novembro U20 scores more
70%
level
17%
Ipatinga U20 scores more
13%

XV de Novembro U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "XV de Novembro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: XV de Novembro U20 vs Ipatinga U20

Ipatinga U20 beat XV de Novembro U20 1-0 in Mineiro U20 on August 2, 2024.

Goals: ? (67').

The match was played at Arena Pitangui in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.