XV de Novembro U20 1–0 Boston City U20

XV de Novembro U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Boston City U20

A. M. Guimaraes Lanes 24'

7/5/2024

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 9Arena Pitangui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

XV de Novembro U2030%

×Draw27%

Boston City U2043%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Novembro U20Expected goals in this matchBoston City U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.40

XV de Novembro U20

1.13

Boston City U20

1.40

Boston City U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

0.58

creates per match

1.14

1.67

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

XV de Novembro U20

0.58

Boston City U20

1.14

allows per match

XV de Novembro U20

1.67

Boston City U20

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par

Boston City U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Novembro U20 ↓

Boston City U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

XV de Novembro U20 or draw

57%

XV de Novembro U20 or Boston City U20

73%

Draw or Boston City U20

70%

Winning margin

XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+

12%

Boston City U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals

68%

XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals

31%

XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals

11%

Boston City U20 1+ goals

75%

Boston City U20 2+ goals

41%

Boston City U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Boston City U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Novembro U20 at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Boston City U20 away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.58 + Boston City U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.13

Boston City U20 attack 1.14 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

XV de Novembro U20 scores more

30%

level

27%

Boston City U20 scores more

43%

Boston City U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Boston City U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

A. M. Guimaraes Lanes

89'

Ney

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff