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XV de Novembro U20 vs Athletic Club MG U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

XV de Novembro U20
XV de Novembro U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Athletic Club MG U20
Athletic Club MG U20
P. Freitas 10'
Gustavao 73', 45+1'
Fred 7'
7/12/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Bezerrão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

XV de Novembro U2020%
×Draw24%
Athletic Club MG U2056%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Novembro U20
0.90
Athletic Club MG U20
1.69

Athletic Club MG U20 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

XV de Novembro U20
0.58
Athletic Club MG U20
1.70

allows per match

XV de Novembro U20
1.67
Athletic Club MG U20
1.22

finishing

XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par
Athletic Club MG U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Novembro U20 ↓

Athletic Club MG U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

XV de Novembro U20 or draw
44%
XV de Novembro U20 or Athletic Club MG U20
76%
Draw or Athletic Club MG U20
80%

Winning margin

XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+
7%
Athletic Club MG U20 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals
59%
XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals
23%
XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals
6%
Athletic Club MG U20 1+ goals
82%
Athletic Club MG U20 2+ goals
50%
Athletic Club MG U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)
26%
Athletic Club MG U20 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Novembro U20 at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Athletic Club MG U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.58 + Athletic Club MG U20 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.90

Athletic Club MG U20 attack 1.70 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

XV de Novembro U20 scores more
20%
level
24%
Athletic Club MG U20 scores more
56%

Athletic Club MG U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Athletic Club MG U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Fred
10'
P. Freitas
45+1'
Gustavao
73'
Gustavao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: XV de Novembro U20 1–3 Athletic Club MG U20

Athletic Club MG U20 beat XV de Novembro U20 3-1 in Mineiro U20 on July 12, 2025.

Goals: Fred (7'), P. Freitas (10'), Gustavao (45+1', 73').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Bezerrão in Crucilândia, Minas Gerais.