XV de Novembro U20 1–1 América Mineiro U20

XV de Novembro U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

América Mineiro U20

Unknown 45'

Unknown 12'

6/15/2024

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

XV de Novembro U2021%

×Draw25%

América Mineiro U2054%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Novembro U20Expected goals in this matchAmérica Mineiro U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.61

XV de Novembro U20

0.89

América Mineiro U20

1.61

América Mineiro U20 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

0.58

creates per match

1.56

1.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

XV de Novembro U20

0.58

América Mineiro U20

1.56

allows per match

XV de Novembro U20

1.67

América Mineiro U20

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par

América Mineiro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Novembro U20 ↓

América Mineiro U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

XV de Novembro U20 or draw

46%

XV de Novembro U20 or América Mineiro U20

75%

Draw or América Mineiro U20

79%

Winning margin

XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+

7%

América Mineiro U20 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals

59%

XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals

22%

XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals

6%

América Mineiro U20 1+ goals

80%

América Mineiro U20 2+ goals

48%

América Mineiro U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)

28%

América Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Novembro U20 at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

América Mineiro U20 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.58 + América Mineiro U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.89

América Mineiro U20 attack 1.56 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

XV de Novembro U20 scores more

21%

level

25%

América Mineiro U20 scores more

54%

América Mineiro U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "América Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

45'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff