XV de Jaú U20 5–4 Tanabi SP U20: Result & Stats

XV de Jaú U20

FT

5 – 4

HT: 4 – 2

Tanabi SP U20

Iago Guilherme 47'

Barbalho 34' (pen)

Kevyn 30' (pen)

Patrik 21'

Otavio 15'

Muller Luan 60'

Daniel Santos 56', 41'

M. dos Santos Pipino 37' (pen)

6/7/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

XV de Jaú U2047%

×Draw23%

Tanabi SP U2031%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Jaú U20Expected goals in this matchTanabi SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.43

XV de Jaú U20

1.81

Tanabi SP U20

1.43

XV de Jaú U20 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

1.74

creates per match

1.56

1.30

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20

1.74

Tanabi SP U20

1.56

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20

1.30

Tanabi SP U20

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

Tanabi SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw

69%

XV de Jaú U20 or Tanabi SP U20

77%

Draw or Tanabi SP U20

53%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+

25%

Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals

84%

XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals

54%

XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals

27%

Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals

76%

Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals

42%

Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)

60%

Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Tanabi SP U20 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.74 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tanabi SP U20 attack 1.56 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more

47%

level

23%

Tanabi SP U20 scores more

31%

XV de Jaú U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Otavio

21'

Patrik

30'

KevynPenalty

34'

BarbalhoPenalty

37'

M. dos Santos PipinoPenalty

41'

Daniel Santos

47'

Iago Guilherme

56'

Daniel Santos

60'

Muller Luan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff