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XV de Jaú U20 vs São Paulo U20 — League #618 2026

XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
David Anthony 76'
Lucas Ferreira 67'
Guilherme Reis 26'
1/11/2025League #618League #618 · Group Stage - 3Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

XV de Jaú U2038%
×Draw24%
São Paulo U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Jaú U20
1.58
São Paulo U20
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.50
São Paulo U20
2.00

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.17
São Paulo U20
1.67

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw
62%
XV de Jaú U20 or São Paulo U20
76%
Draw or São Paulo U20
62%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
19%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
79%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
47%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
21%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
79%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
47%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
50%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.50 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

São Paulo U20 attack 2.00 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more
38%
level
24%
São Paulo U20 scores more
38%

XV de Jaú U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Guilherme Reis
45+3'
Guilherme Reis
67'
Lucas Ferreira
76'
David Anthony

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: XV de Jaú U20 vs São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat XV de Jaú U20 2-1 in League #618 on January 11, 2025.

Goals: Guilherme Reis (26'), Lucas Ferreira (67'), David Anthony (76').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães in Jaú, São Paulo.