XV de Jaú U20 0–1 Novorizontino U20: Result & Stats

XV de Jaú U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Novorizontino U20

Pedro Balotelli 45+3'

9/6/2024

Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

XV de Jaú U2030%

×Draw24%

Novorizontino U2046%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Jaú U20Expected goals in this matchNovorizontino U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.69

XV de Jaú U20

1.33

Novorizontino U20

1.69

Novorizontino U20 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

1.74

creates per match

2.08

1.30

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20

1.74

Novorizontino U20

2.08

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20

1.30

Novorizontino U20

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw

54%

XV de Jaú U20 or Novorizontino U20

76%

Draw or Novorizontino U20

70%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+

13%

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals

74%

XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals

38%

XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals

15%

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals

82%

Novorizontino U20 2+ goals

50%

Novorizontino U20 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.74 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.33

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more

30%

level

24%

Novorizontino U20 scores more

46%

Novorizontino U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

Pedro Balotelli

80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff