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XV de Jaú U20 vs Ibrachina U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
Unknown 60'
Unknown 75'
7/5/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

XV de Jaú U2036%
×Draw24%
Ibrachina U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Jaú U20
1.46
Ibrachina U20
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.74
Ibrachina U20
1.83

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.30
Ibrachina U20
1.17

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par
Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

Ibrachina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw
60%
XV de Jaú U20 or Ibrachina U20
76%
Draw or Ibrachina U20
64%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
17%
Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
77%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
43%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
18%
Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
79%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
46%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Ibrachina U20 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.74 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ibrachina U20 attack 1.83 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more
36%
level
24%
Ibrachina U20 scores more
40%

Ibrachina U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
75'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: XV de Jaú U20 1–1 Ibrachina U20

XV de Jaú U20 and Ibrachina U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 5, 2025.

Goals: ? (60', 75').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães in Jaú, São Paulo.