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XV de Jaú U20 vs Guarani U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Guarani U20
Guarani U20
Y. Gabriel de Lima Alves 48'
Unknown 25', 21'
7/19/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

XV de Jaú U2035%
×Draw26%
Guarani U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Jaú U20
1.28
Guarani U20
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.74
Guarani U20
1.45

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.30
Guarani U20
0.82

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par
Guarani U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

Guarani U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw
61%
XV de Jaú U20 or Guarani U20
74%
Draw or Guarani U20
65%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
15%
Guarani U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
72%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
37%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
14%
Guarani U20 1+ goals
75%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
40%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Guarani U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.74 + Guarani U20 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.28

Guarani U20 attack 1.45 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more
35%
level
26%
Guarani U20 scores more
39%

Guarani U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
25'
48'
Y. Gabriel de Lima Alves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: XV de Jaú U20 1–2 Guarani U20

Guarani U20 beat XV de Jaú U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 19, 2025.

Goals: ? (21', 25'), Y. Gabriel de Lima Alves (48').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães in Jaú, São Paulo.