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XV de Jaú U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
Manaus 90+1'
H. Coelho 50'
R. Tavares 47'
Kevyn 36'
Y. Gabriel de Lima Alves 15'
Unknown 75', 21'
8/12/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 15Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

XV de Jaú U2041%
×Draw25%
Gremio Prudente U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Jaú U20
1.49
Gremio Prudente U20
1.34

XV de Jaú U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.74
Gremio Prudente U20
1.38

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.30
Gremio Prudente U20
1.24

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par
Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw
66%
XV de Jaú U20 or Gremio Prudente U20
75%
Draw or Gremio Prudente U20
59%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
20%
Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
77%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
44%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
19%
Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
74%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
39%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.74 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more
41%
level
25%
Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
34%

XV de Jaú U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Y. Gabriel de Lima Alves
21'
36'
Kevyn
47'
R. Tavares
50'
H. Coelho
75'
90+1'
Manaus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: XV de Jaú U20 5–2 Gremio Prudente U20

XV de Jaú U20 beat Gremio Prudente U20 5-2 in Paulista - U20 on August 12, 2025.

Goals: Y. Gabriel de Lima Alves (15'), ? (21', 75'), Kevyn (36'), R. Tavares (47'), H. Coelho (50'), Manaus (90+1').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães in Jaú, São Paulo.