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XV de Jaú U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
FT
1 – 3
Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

XV de Jaú U2036%
×Draw25%
Ferroviária U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Jaú U20
1.42
Ferroviária U20
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.74
Ferroviária U20
1.70

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.30
Ferroviária U20
1.09

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par
Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw
61%
XV de Jaú U20 or Ferroviária U20
75%
Draw or Ferroviária U20
64%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
17%
Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
76%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
41%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
17%
Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
78%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
44%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.74 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more
36%
level
25%
Ferroviária U20 scores more
39%

Ferroviária U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: XV de Jaú U20 vs Ferroviária U20

Ferroviária U20 beat XV de Jaú U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães in Jaú, São Paulo.