XV de Jaú U20 1–2 Corinthians U20: Result & Stats

XV de Jaú U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Corinthians U20

Unknown 90+5'

Pedrinho 90+9'

Gui Negao 68'

6/21/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

XV de Jaú U2040%

×Draw25%

Corinthians U2035%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Jaú U20Expected goals in this matchCorinthians U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.38

XV de Jaú U20

1.48

Corinthians U20

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

1.74

creates per match

1.46

1.30

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20

1.74

Corinthians U20

1.46

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20

1.30

Corinthians U20

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw

65%

XV de Jaú U20 or Corinthians U20

75%

Draw or Corinthians U20

60%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+

19%

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals

77%

XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals

43%

XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals

19%

Corinthians U20 1+ goals

75%

Corinthians U20 2+ goals

40%

Corinthians U20 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)

53%

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.74 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more

40%

level

25%

Corinthians U20 scores more

35%

XV de Jaú U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'

Gui Negao

75'

90+5'

90+9'

Pedrinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff