XV de Jaú U20 1–2 AC Guaratinguetá U20

XV de Jaú U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AC Guaratinguetá U20

H. Coelho 88'

J. Sousa 90+3'

C. Ferreira 26'

7/26/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

XV de Jaú U2059%

×Draw23%

AC Guaratinguetá U2018%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Jaú U20Expected goals in this matchAC Guaratinguetá U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.90

XV de Jaú U20

1.81

AC Guaratinguetá U20

0.90

XV de Jaú U20 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 8 away

1.74

creates per match

0.50

1.30

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20

1.74

AC Guaratinguetá U20

0.50

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20

1.30

AC Guaratinguetá U20

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

AC Guaratinguetá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

AC Guaratinguetá U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw

82%

XV de Jaú U20 or AC Guaratinguetá U20

77%

Draw or AC Guaratinguetá U20

41%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+

34%

AC Guaratinguetá U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals

84%

XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals

54%

XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals

27%

AC Guaratinguetá U20 1+ goals

59%

AC Guaratinguetá U20 2+ goals

23%

AC Guaratinguetá U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)

76%

AC Guaratinguetá U20 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

AC Guaratinguetá U20 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.74 + AC Guaratinguetá U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

AC Guaratinguetá U20 attack 0.50 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more

59%

level

23%

AC Guaratinguetá U20 scores more

18%

XV de Jaú U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

C. Ferreira

88'

H. Coelho

90+3'

J. Sousa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff