Xorazm 2–2 Surkhon: Result & Stats | Super League

Xorazm

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Surkhon

S. Samiev 86'

M. Bobodzhonov 45' (pen)

R. Turdimurodov 78'

S. Poyonov 4'

8/8/2025

Super League · Round 17OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Xorazm42%

×Draw28%

Surkhon31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XorazmExpected goals in this matchSurkhon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.08

Xorazm

1.31

Surkhon

1.08

Xorazm creates 21% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 97 away

1.00

creates per match

0.84

1.33

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Xorazm

1.00

Surkhon

0.84

allows per match

Xorazm

1.33

Surkhon

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xorazm+0.00on par

Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xorazm ↓

Surkhon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Xorazm or draw

69%

Xorazm or Surkhon

72%

Draw or Surkhon

58%

Winning margin

Xorazm wins by 2+

19%

Surkhon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Xorazm 1+ goals

73%

Xorazm 2+ goals

38%

Xorazm 3+ goals

14%

Surkhon 1+ goals

66%

Surkhon 2+ goals

29%

Surkhon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Xorazm (draw refunded)

58%

Surkhon (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xorazm at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xorazm attack 1.00 + Surkhon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Surkhon attack 0.84 + Xorazm defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Xorazm scores more

42%

level

28%

Surkhon scores more

31%

Xorazm at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Xorazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

S. Poyonov↳ D. Tursunov

34'

J. Azimov

40'

S. Poyonov

45'

M. BobodzhonovPenalty

46'

S. Abdullazhonov← J. Azimov

46'

A. Saidkhonov← I. Toshpulatov

61'

S. Samiev← T. Ismoilov

63'

N. Abdikholikov← S. Komilov

68'

A. Otakhonov

73'

A. Khusinov← I. Shaykulov

78'

R. Turdimurodov↳ N. Abdikholikov

83'

K. Tursunkulov← M. Bobodzhonov

83'

M. Bozorov← K. Sherbutaev

86'

S. Samiev↳ K. Tursunkulov

Xorazm

Surkhon

16

Yuldoshev

7

A

4

6

66

22

99

⚽

Poyonov

24

▼

Komilov

27

Jumaev

8

▼

Sherbutae

10

⚽

39

6

15

2

27

▼

Toshpulat

9

▼

Azimov

18

▼

Shaykulov

94

Abdukhami

11

Iminov

7

▼

Ismoilov

10

⚽

▼

Bobodzhon

46'▲S. Abdullazhonov←▼J. Azimov

46'▲A. Saidkhonov←▼I. Toshpulatov

61'▲S. Samiev←▼T. Ismoilov

73'▲A. Khusinov←▼I. Shaykulov

83'▲K. Tursunkulov←▼M. Bobodzhonov

Xorazm substitutes

88Khusinov4Ibrokhimov99Samiev8Tursunkulov77Abdullazhonov5Juraev12Kobulzhanov20Ezhov22Saidkhonov

63'▲N. Abdikholikov←▼S. Komilov

83'▲M. Bozorov←▼K. Sherbutaev

Surkhon substitutes

14Abdukhamidov15Ramazonov18Abdikholikov77Karimov86Merganov19Abdurakhmonov2Karimov26Shukurullaev9Bozorov

Match Recap: Xorazm vs Surkhon

Xorazm and Surkhon drew 2-2 in Super League on August 8, 2025.

Goals: S. Poyonov (4'), M. Bobodzhonov (45' pen), R. Turdimurodov (78'), S. Samiev (86').

The match was played at OKMK Sport Majmuasi in Olmaliq.

Xorazm vs Surkhon — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Xorazm vs Surkhon