Xorazm 0–0 Kokand-1912: Result & Stats

Xorazm

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kokand-1912

9/20/2025

Super League · Round 22Xorazm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Xorazm45%

×Draw28%

Kokand-191227%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XorazmExpected goals in this matchKokand-1912

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.95

Xorazm

1.31

Kokand-1912

0.95

Xorazm creates 38% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.00

creates per match

0.57

1.33

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Xorazm

1.00

Kokand-1912

0.57

allows per match

Xorazm

1.33

Kokand-1912

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xorazm+0.00on par

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xorazm ↓

Kokand-1912 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Xorazm or draw

73%

Xorazm or Kokand-1912

72%

Draw or Kokand-1912

55%

Winning margin

Xorazm wins by 2+

21%

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Xorazm 1+ goals

73%

Xorazm 2+ goals

38%

Xorazm 3+ goals

14%

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

61%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

25%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Xorazm (draw refunded)

62%

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xorazm at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xorazm attack 1.00 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kokand-1912 attack 0.57 + Xorazm defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Xorazm scores more

45%

level

28%

Kokand-1912 scores more

27%

Xorazm at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Xorazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Samiev← S. Abdullazhonov

46'

J. Kholturaev← A. Khaydarov

61'

J. Khusanov← S. Gadoev

61'

I. Malikdzhonov← K. Daci

69'

K. Iminov← J. Azimov

69'

A. Akhrorov← M. Bobodzhonov

78'

D. Ortikboev

81'

M. Mukhammadzhonov← A. Potapov

88'

Y. Kondratyuk← M. Khasanov

90+5'

S. Akramov

90+6'

A. Salimov←

Xorazm

Kokand-1912

13

44

5

23

19

10

▼

Gadoev

7

Gvazava

22

▼

Khasanov

4

Toshtemir

17

▼

Daci

78

▼

Khaydarov

39

▼

88

15

2

94

77

▼

Abdullazh

8

Tursunkul

9

▼

Azimov

7

Ismoilov

10

▼

Bobodzhon

18

Shaykulov

46'▲S. Samiev←▼S. Abdullazhonov

69'▲K. Iminov←▼J. Azimov

69'▲A. Akhrorov←▼M. Bobodzhonov

81'▲M. Mukhammadzhonov←▼A. Potapov

Xorazm substitutes

1Mukhammadzhonov3Sultonov4Ibrokhimov6Otakhonov11Iminov20Ezhov22Saidkhonov79Akhrorov99Samiev

46'▲J. Kholturaev←▼A. Khaydarov

61'▲J. Khusanov←▼S. Gadoev

61'▲I. Malikdzhonov←▼K. Daci

88'▲Y. Kondratyuk←▼M. Khasanov

90+6'▲A. Salimov←▼—

Kokand-1912 substitutes

1Nartadzhiev6Salimov9Khusanov14Kholturaev15Khakimov20Malikdzhonov21Fazliddinov30Mukhtorov69Kondratyuk