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Xorazm vs Kokand-1912 — Pro League A 2026

Xorazm
Xorazm
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kokand-1912
Kokand-1912
B. Sobirov 23'
I. Sharipov 45+4'
10/30/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Xorazm24%
×Draw37%
Kokand-191239%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xorazm
0.60
Kokand-1912
0.85

Kokand-1912 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Xorazm
0.64
Kokand-1912
1.00

allows per match

Xorazm
0.71
Kokand-1912
0.57

finishing

Xorazm+0.00on par
Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 82Over: 1882%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 74Yes: 2674%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xorazm ↓

Kokand-1912 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–120%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
43%57%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Xorazm or draw
61%
Xorazm or Kokand-1912
63%
Draw or Kokand-1912
76%

Winning margin

Xorazm wins by 2+
6%
Kokand-1912 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Xorazm 1+ goals
45%
Xorazm 2+ goals
12%
Xorazm 3+ goals
2%
Kokand-1912 1+ goals
57%
Kokand-1912 2+ goals
21%
Kokand-1912 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Xorazm (draw refunded)
38%
Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xorazm at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xorazm attack 0.64 + Kokand-1912 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.60

Kokand-1912 attack 1.00 + Xorazm defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Xorazm scores more
24%
level
37%
Kokand-1912 scores more
39%

Kokand-1912 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kokand-1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
B. Sobirov
45+4'
I. Sharipov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xorazm vs Kokand-1912

Xorazm and Kokand-1912 drew 1-1 in Pro League A on October 30, 2024.

Goals: B. Sobirov (23'), I. Sharipov (45+4').