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Xorazm vs Buxoro — Pro League A 2026

Xorazm
Xorazm
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Buxoro
Buxoro
M. Bobodzhonov 47'
10/24/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Xorazm26%
×Draw37%
Buxoro37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xorazm
0.64
Buxoro
0.82

Buxoro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Xorazm
0.64
Buxoro
0.93

allows per match

Xorazm
0.71
Buxoro
0.64

finishing

Xorazm+0.00on par
Buxoro+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xorazm ↓

Buxoro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–119%
0–28%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
43%57%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Xorazm or draw
63%
Xorazm or Buxoro
63%
Draw or Buxoro
74%

Winning margin

Xorazm wins by 2+
7%
Buxoro wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Xorazm 1+ goals
47%
Xorazm 2+ goals
14%
Xorazm 3+ goals
3%
Buxoro 1+ goals
56%
Buxoro 2+ goals
20%
Buxoro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Xorazm (draw refunded)
42%
Buxoro (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xorazm at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Buxoro away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xorazm attack 0.64 + Buxoro defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.64

Buxoro attack 0.93 + Xorazm defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Xorazm scores more
26%
level
37%
Buxoro scores more
37%

Buxoro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Buxoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
M. Bobodzhonov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xorazm 1 – 0 Buxoro

Xorazm beat Buxoro 1-0 in Pro League A on October 24, 2024.

Goals: M. Bobodzhonov (47').