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Xorazm vs Aral — Pro League A 2026

Xorazm
Xorazm
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aral
Aral
K. Tursunkulov 72'
B. Farkhodov 55'
M. Bobodzhonov 46'
S. Sagdullaev 75' (pen)
9/24/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Xorazm37%
×Draw31%
Aral32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xorazm
1.02
Aral
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

creates per match

Xorazm
0.64
Aral
1.17

allows per match

Xorazm
0.71
Aral
1.41

finishing

Xorazm+0.00on par
Aral+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xorazm ↓

Aral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Xorazm or draw
68%
Xorazm or Aral
69%
Draw or Aral
63%

Winning margin

Xorazm wins by 2+
14%
Aral wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Xorazm 1+ goals
64%
Xorazm 2+ goals
27%
Xorazm 3+ goals
8%
Aral 1+ goals
61%
Aral 2+ goals
24%
Aral 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Xorazm (draw refunded)
53%
Aral (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xorazm at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Aral away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xorazm attack 0.64 + Aral defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.02

Aral attack 1.17 + Xorazm defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Xorazm scores more
37%
level
31%
Aral scores more
32%

Xorazm at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Xorazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
M. Bobodzhonov
55'
B. Farkhodov
72'
K. Tursunkulov
75'
S. SagdullaevPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xorazm 3 – 1 Aral

Xorazm beat Aral 3-1 in Pro League A on September 24, 2024.

Goals: M. Bobodzhonov (46'), B. Farkhodov (55'), K. Tursunkulov (72'), S. Sagdullaev (75' pen).