Xorazm 2–3 Andijan: Result & Stats | Super League

Xorazm

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Andijan

V. Rakhimov 53' (OG)

V. Bubanja 26'

B. Abdumannonov 87'

I. Mamatkazin 80'

D. Abdumannopov 11'

6/26/2025

Super League · Round 14Xorazm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Xorazm40%

×Draw27%

Andijan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XorazmExpected goals in this matchAndijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Xorazm

1.29

Andijan

1.15

Xorazm creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 88 away

1.00

creates per match

0.97

1.33

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Xorazm

1.00

Andijan

0.97

allows per match

Xorazm

1.33

Andijan

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xorazm+0.00on par

Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xorazm ↓

Andijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Xorazm or draw

67%

Xorazm or Andijan

73%

Draw or Andijan

60%

Winning margin

Xorazm wins by 2+

18%

Andijan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Xorazm 1+ goals

72%

Xorazm 2+ goals

37%

Xorazm 3+ goals

14%

Andijan 1+ goals

68%

Andijan 2+ goals

32%

Andijan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Xorazm (draw refunded)

55%

Andijan (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xorazm at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xorazm attack 1.00 + Andijan defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Andijan attack 0.97 + Xorazm defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Xorazm scores more

40%

level

27%

Andijan scores more

33%

Xorazm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Xorazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Abdumannopov↳ B. Abdumannonov

26'

V. Bubanja↳ K. Iminov

35'

B. Abdumannonov

53'

V. RakhimovOwn goal

57'

S. Yorkinboyev← A. Ashurov

57'

E. Adkhamov← V. Rakhimov

66'

T. Ismoilov← S. Abdullazhonov

66'

M. Bobodzhonov← S. Samiev

72'

A. Komilov

78'

F. Narh← D. Juraev

78'

M. Mahamadaliyev← R. Turdimurodov

78'

A. Kryeziu← I. Abduganiev

80'

I. Mamatkazin

87'

B. Abdumannonov↳ M. Toirov

89'

S. Shaakhmedov← K. Tursunkulov

89'

A. Akhrorov← R. Abdukhamidov

90+3'

E. Adkhamov

Xorazm

Andijan

25

🥅

▼

Rakhimov

13

Azimov

2

▼

Ashurov

4

⚽

Mamatkazi

22

Ismonalie

14

Komilov

26

A

Toirov

23

⚽

Abdumanno

10

▼

Abduganie

71

⚽A

Abdumanno

7

▼

Turdimuro

12

Kobulzhan

88

Khusinov

15

⚽

Bubanja

44

Tursunov

27

Toshpulat

8

▼

Tursunkul

5

▼

Juraev

11

A

Iminov

77

▼

Abdullazh

99

▼

Samiev

94

▼

Abdukhami

66'▲T. Ismoilov←▼S. Abdullazhonov

66'▲M. Bobodzhonov←▼S. Samiev

78'▲F. Narh←▼D. Juraev

89'▲S. Shaakhmedov←▼K. Tursunkulov

89'▲A. Akhrorov←▼R. Abdukhamidov

Xorazm substitutes

18Narh22Shaakhmedov79Akhrorov20Ezhov13Mukhammadzhonov3Sultonov4Ibrokhimov7Ismoilov10Bobodzhonov

57'▲S. Yorkinboyev←▼A. Ashurov

57'▲E. Adkhamov←▼V. Rakhimov

78'▲M. Mahamadaliyev←▼R. Turdimurodov

78'▲A. Kryeziu←▼I. Abduganiev

Andijan substitutes

55Mahamadaliyev88Yorkinboyev20Solijonov28Sulaymonov19Ahmadjonov6Kryeziu8Shaykulov1Adkhamov21Khabibullaev