Xinjiang Tianshan 1–0 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Xinjiang Tianshan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

6/29/2019

League One · Round 15Xinjiang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan28%

×Draw23%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xinjiang TianshanExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.80

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.33

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.80

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 35% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

1.08

creates per match

1.47

2.13

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.08

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.47

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.13

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw

52%

Xinjiang Tianshan or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

77%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

72%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

12%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

74%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

38%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

15%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

83%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

54%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

37%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.13 · 76 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.47 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

28%

level

23%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

48%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff