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Xinjiang Tianshan vs Shanghai Shenxin — League One 2018

Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
5/9/2018League OneLeague One · Round 10Hongshan Stadium (Ürümqi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan39%
×Draw23%
Shanghai Shenxin37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.62
Shanghai Shenxin
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 31 away

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.08
Shanghai Shenxin
1.03

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
2.13
Shanghai Shenxin
2.16

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw
63%
Xinjiang Tianshan or Shanghai Shenxin
77%
Draw or Shanghai Shenxin
61%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
20%
Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
80%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
48%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
22%
Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
79%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
47%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
51%
Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.13 · 76 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.62

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.03 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
39%
level
23%
Shanghai Shenxin scores more
37%

Xinjiang Tianshan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Xinjiang Tianshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xinjiang Tianshan vs Shanghai Shenxin

Shanghai Shenxin beat Xinjiang Tianshan 1-0 in League One on May 9, 2018.

The match was played at Hongshan Stadium (Ürümqi).