Xinjiang Tianshan 2–3 Nei Mongol Zhongyou

Xinjiang Tianshan

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

Stéfano 87', 43'

A. Senghor 79', 37'

Wang Bo 61'

8/18/2019

League One · Round 22Xinjiang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan32%

×Draw25%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xinjiang TianshanExpected goals in this matchNei Mongol Zhongyou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.58

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.34

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.58

Nei Mongol Zhongyou creates 18% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 38 away

1.05

creates per match

1.08

2.08

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.05

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.08

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.08

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Nei Mongol Zhongyou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw

57%

Xinjiang Tianshan or Nei Mongol Zhongyou

75%

Draw or Nei Mongol Zhongyou

68%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

14%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

74%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

39%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

15%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals

79%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals

47%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

43%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.08 · 74 matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.05 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.08 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

32%

level

25%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more

43%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nei Mongol Zhongyou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

A. Senghor

43'

Stéfano

58'

Bebet← Nurmemet Tursun

61'

Wang Bo

66'

Yehya Ablikim← Dilemet Tudi

69'

Aniwar Erpanjan← Musajan Danyar

75'

Zhang Tianxiang← Guo Jing

79'

A. Senghor

86'

Ren Chenchao← Li Gen

87'

Stéfano

90+1'

Wang Jinze← Chen Fangzhou

Xinjiang

Nei

1

Weiguo

27

⚽

Bo

6

Qing

12

▼

Jing

3

▼

33

23

31

15

⚽2

Senghor

28

Shuai

8

▼

Gen

12

Junjie

6

Arapat

2

▼

Tursun

14

Abdukerem

15

▼

16

18

10

37

▼

Danyar

11

⚽2

Stéfano

39

Naldinho

Manager: Fernando

58'▲Bebet←▼Nurmemet Tursun

66'▲Yehya Ablikim←▼Dilemet Tudi

69'▲Aniwar Erpanjan←▼Musajan Danyar

Xinjiang Tianshan substitutes

22Bebet9Ablikim21Erpanjan5Alimjan8Long13Yusup'ali28Ablimit

Manager: Chen Yang

75'▲Zhang Tianxiang←▼Guo Jing

86'▲Ren Chenchao←▼Li Gen

90+1'▲Wang Jinze←▼Chen Fangzhou

Nei Mongol Zhongyou substitutes

4Tianxiang25Chenchao2Jinze13Ludekun16Zilin17Chenguang37Zengxiang