Xinjiang Tianshan 1–2 Nantong Zhiyun

Xinjiang Tianshan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Nantong Zhiyun

9/30/2020

League One · Round 6Changzhou Institute of Technology

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan22%

×Draw24%

Nantong Zhiyun54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xinjiang TianshanExpected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.75

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.02

Nantong Zhiyun

1.75

Nantong Zhiyun creates 72% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 77 away

1.08

creates per match

1.38

2.13

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.08

Nantong Zhiyun

1.38

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.13

Nantong Zhiyun

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw

46%

Xinjiang Tianshan or Nantong Zhiyun

76%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

78%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

8%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

64%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

27%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

8%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

83%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

52%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

29%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.13 · 76 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.38 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

22%

level

24%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

54%

Nantong Zhiyun at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff