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Xinjiang Tianshan vs Dalian Transcendence — League One 2018

Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
4/29/2018League OneLeague One · Round 8Hongshan Stadium (Ürümqi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan40%
×Draw24%
Dalian Transcendence36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.54
Dalian Transcendence
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.08
Dalian Transcendence
0.80

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
2.13
Dalian Transcendence
2.00

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par
Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Dalian Transcendence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw
64%
Xinjiang Tianshan or Dalian Transcendence
76%
Draw or Dalian Transcendence
60%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
19%
Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
79%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
45%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
20%
Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
77%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
43%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
52%
Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.13 · 76 matches

Dalian Transcendence away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Dalian Transcendence defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dalian Transcendence attack 0.80 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
40%
level
24%
Dalian Transcendence scores more
36%

Xinjiang Tianshan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Xinjiang Tianshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Xinjiang Tianshan 2–2 Dalian Transcendence

Xinjiang Tianshan and Dalian Transcendence drew 2-2 in League One on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Hongshan Stadium (Ürümqi).