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Xinjiang Tianshan vs Beijing Renhe — League One 2018

Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
11/1/2020League OneLeague One · Relegation Round - 3Hengli Soccer Town #9 Soccerpitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan33%
×Draw26%
Beijing Renhe42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.26
Beijing Renhe
1.46

Beijing Renhe creates 16% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 9 away

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.08
Beijing Renhe
0.78

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
2.13
Beijing Renhe
1.44

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw
58%
Xinjiang Tianshan or Beijing Renhe
74%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
67%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
14%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
72%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
36%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
13%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
77%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
43%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
44%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.13 · 76 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.26

Beijing Renhe attack 0.78 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
33%
level
26%
Beijing Renhe scores more
42%

Beijing Renhe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xinjiang Tianshan vs Beijing Renhe

Xinjiang Tianshan and Beijing Renhe drew 1-1 in League One on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Hengli Soccer Town #9 Soccerpitch in Dongguan.