Xinabajul 1–1 Guastatoya: Result & Stats

Xinabajul

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guastatoya

4/24/2025

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 21Estadio Los Cuchumatanes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Xinabajul48%

×Draw28%

Guastatoya24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XinabajulExpected goals in this matchGuastatoya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.85

Xinabajul

1.33

Guastatoya

0.85

Xinabajul creates 56% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 152 away

1.37

creates per match

0.73

0.98

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Xinabajul

1.37

Guastatoya

0.73

allows per match

Xinabajul

0.98

Guastatoya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xinabajul+0.00on par

Guastatoya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinabajul ↓

Guastatoya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Xinabajul or draw

76%

Xinabajul or Guastatoya

72%

Draw or Guastatoya

52%

Winning margin

Xinabajul wins by 2+

23%

Guastatoya wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Xinabajul 1+ goals

74%

Xinabajul 2+ goals

38%

Xinabajul 3+ goals

15%

Guastatoya 1+ goals

57%

Guastatoya 2+ goals

21%

Guastatoya 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Xinabajul (draw refunded)

67%

Guastatoya (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinabajul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.98 · 60 matches

Guastatoya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinabajul attack 1.37 + Guastatoya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Guastatoya attack 0.73 + Xinabajul defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Xinabajul scores more

48%

level

28%

Guastatoya scores more

24%

Xinabajul at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Xinabajul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff