Xinabajul 2–2 Coatepecano IB: Result & Stats

Xinabajul

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Coatepecano IB

8/6/2023

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 2Estadio Los Cuchumatanes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Xinabajul62%

×Draw22%

Coatepecano IB15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XinabajulExpected goals in this matchCoatepecano IB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.77

Xinabajul

1.81

Coatepecano IB

0.77

Xinabajul creates 135% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 16 away

1.37

creates per match

0.56

0.98

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Xinabajul

1.37

Coatepecano IB

0.56

allows per match

Xinabajul

0.98

Coatepecano IB

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xinabajul+0.00on par

Coatepecano IB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinabajul ↓

Coatepecano IB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Xinabajul or draw

85%

Xinabajul or Coatepecano IB

78%

Draw or Coatepecano IB

38%

Winning margin

Xinabajul wins by 2+

36%

Coatepecano IB wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Xinabajul 1+ goals

84%

Xinabajul 2+ goals

54%

Xinabajul 3+ goals

27%

Coatepecano IB 1+ goals

54%

Coatepecano IB 2+ goals

18%

Coatepecano IB 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Xinabajul (draw refunded)

80%

Coatepecano IB (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinabajul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.98 · 60 matches

Coatepecano IB away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinabajul attack 1.37 + Coatepecano IB defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.81

Coatepecano IB attack 0.56 + Xinabajul defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Xinabajul scores more

62%

level

22%

Coatepecano IB scores more

15%

Xinabajul at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Xinabajul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff