Xi'an Ronghai 0–3 Jiangxi Liansheng: Result & Stats

Xi'an Ronghai

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Jiangxi Liansheng

Abdukerim Qaharman 90', 58'

W. Qurban 38'

5/31/2025

League Two · Round 12Taiyuan University Football Stadium - Artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Xi'an Ronghai32%

×Draw28%

Jiangxi Liansheng40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xi'an RonghaiExpected goals in this matchJiangxi Liansheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.25

Xi'an Ronghai

1.10

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.25

Jiangxi Liansheng creates 14% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 22 away

1.25

creates per match

1.23

1.28

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Xi'an Ronghai

1.25

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.23

allows per match

Xi'an Ronghai

1.28

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xi'an Ronghai+0.00on par

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xi'an Ronghai ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Xi'an Ronghai or draw

60%

Xi'an Ronghai or Jiangxi Liansheng

72%

Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng

68%

Winning margin

Xi'an Ronghai wins by 2+

13%

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Xi'an Ronghai 1+ goals

67%

Xi'an Ronghai 2+ goals

30%

Xi'an Ronghai 3+ goals

10%

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals

71%

Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals

36%

Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Xi'an Ronghai (draw refunded)

45%

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xi'an Ronghai at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xi'an Ronghai attack 1.25 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 1.23 + Xi'an Ronghai defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Xi'an Ronghai scores more

32%

level

28%

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more

40%

Jiangxi Liansheng at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jiangxi Liansheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

W. Qurban↳ Sun Yue

43'

Abdukerim Qaharman

46'

Lu Jiajun← Ablimit Feruk

46'

Gong Zheng← Su Shun

52'

Zhang Yanjun

58'

Abdukerim Qaharman↳ W. Qurban

61'

Li Chenguang← W. Qurban

73'

Li Jinqing← Li Zhongting

74'

Wang Hongbin← Li Jiahao

83'

Jiang Feng← Liu Tianyang

83'

85'

86'

86'

87'

88'

90'

Abdukerim Qaharman↳ Li Chenguang

Xi'an

Jiangxi

12

6

13

18

14

5

60

⚽A

▼

Qurban

10

▼

Abdusalam

22

▼

Jiahao

44

⚽2

Qaharman

7

A

▼

1

23

3

6

▼

Wei

33

▼

Tianyang

17

Iminjan

8

▼

Zhongting

47

▼

Feruk

18

Xiaohan

31

Tiancheng

37

▼

Shun

46'▲Lu Jiajun←▼Ablimit Feruk

46'▲Gong Zheng←▼Su Shun

73'▲Li Jinqing←▼Li Zhongting

83'▲Jiang Feng←▼Liu Tianyang

83'▲Wu Peng←▼Zhang Wei

Xi'an Ronghai substitutes

58Hanwen7Jinqing49Jiajun35Xuyao45Jinyang32Feng51Binrong5Peng9Zheng15Zhiyuan16Jiaqi42Hui

Manager: Songtao Yue

61'▲Li Chenguang←▼W. Qurban

74'▲Wang Hongbin←▼Li Jiahao

85'▲Xu Lei←▼S. Abdusalam

86'▲Xu Zhaoji←▼Sun Yue

Jiangxi Liansheng substitutes

36Jiali15Lei23Zhaoji27Xibo16Yunlong4Mingxin3Hongbin26Wang29Zhiheng25Chenguang31Zijian

Match Recap: Xi'an Ronghai vs Jiangxi Liansheng

Jiangxi Liansheng beat Xi'an Ronghai 3-0 in League Two on May 31, 2025.

Goals: W. Qurban (38'), Abdukerim Qaharman (58', 90').

The match was played at Taiyuan University Football Stadium - Artificial grass in Taiyuan.

Xi'an Ronghai vs Jiangxi Liansheng — League Two 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Xi'an Ronghai vs Jiangxi Liansheng