Xi'an Ronghai 0–1 Hainan Star: Result & Stats

Xi'an Ronghai

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hainan Star

8/16/2024

League Two · Relegation Round - 1Yan'an Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Xi'an Ronghai48%

×Draw26%

Hainan Star27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xi'an RonghaiExpected goals in this matchHainan Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.08

Xi'an Ronghai

1.53

Hainan Star

1.08

Xi'an Ronghai creates 42% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 48 away

1.25

creates per match

0.88

1.28

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Xi'an Ronghai

1.25

Hainan Star

0.88

allows per match

Xi'an Ronghai

1.28

Hainan Star

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xi'an Ronghai+0.00on par

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xi'an Ronghai ↓

Hainan Star →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Xi'an Ronghai or draw

73%

Xi'an Ronghai or Hainan Star

74%

Draw or Hainan Star

52%

Winning margin

Xi'an Ronghai wins by 2+

24%

Hainan Star wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Xi'an Ronghai 1+ goals

78%

Xi'an Ronghai 2+ goals

45%

Xi'an Ronghai 3+ goals

20%

Hainan Star 1+ goals

66%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

29%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Xi'an Ronghai (draw refunded)

64%

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xi'an Ronghai at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xi'an Ronghai attack 1.25 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.53

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Xi'an Ronghai defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Xi'an Ronghai scores more

48%

level

26%

Hainan Star scores more

27%

Xi'an Ronghai at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Xi'an Ronghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff